A Second Korean War - The New Legalist

(Mr. Ben Mah, author of America and China, America and the World, America in the Age of Neoliberalism, and Financial Tsunami and Economic Crisis – The End of American Hegemony, is a frequent contributor to this website.)

Since he entered office in February 2008, President Lee Myung-Bak of South Korea has wasted no time heightening tension with North Korea. Lee, who belongs to the conservative Grand National Party, has a stated policy of dismantling the Sunshine Policy, which was initiated by President Kim Dae-jung and continued by President Roh Moo-hyun. The Sunshine Policy emphasizes economic cooperation and peaceful co-existence rather than regime change or unification. In pursuance of the Sunshine Policy, several agreements were signed between the North and South Korea during the presidencies of Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, Lee’s predecessors. But Lee unilaterally terminated all of the agreements including the rail connection from the South to North, which brought economic benefits for both sides.^2.

Most importantly, Lee Myung-Bak dismantled the emergency communication channels established by Roh Moo-Hyun. These communication channels become useful in case of potential armed conflict due to misunderstanding, as in the case of the artillery duel between the South and North on November 23, 2010, which led to the loss of lives and the buildup of tension.

Indeed, “A very important part of Lee’s policy is the buildup of tension, especially through war exercises.”^1. On November 22, 2010, the South Korean armed force embarked on its annual military exercises with the participation of U.S. warships. In response to what she considered military provocation, North Korea urged the South to desist from firing shells into North Korean territorial waters; otherwise they would retaliate with a “resolute physical counter-strike.”^1.

Ignoring the warning from the North, the South Korean force proceeded with the shelling for four hours, after which the North Koreans opened fire on Yeonpyeong Island resulting in 4 dead and 18 wounded. The South Korean armed force also inflicted considerable damage to the North.^2.

Five days after the artillery duel, South Korea and the U.S. staged another military exercise in the Yellow Sea, right on China’s doorstep. This time the US George Washington and four other vessels were joined by South Korean Navy. According to the New York Times, the U.S. joint exercises with South Korea were meant in part to drive home a message to Beijing. Two days later, the U.S. and Japan staged another military drill near the South Korea coast. “The war games, Keen Sword 2011, involve 60 warships, 400 aircraft and 44,000 troops and are the largest-ever joint U.S.-Japan military drills.”^4.In reference to Japan’s dispute with China over the Diaoyu Islands, the Japanese Kyodo News stated that “The maneuvers will be carried out to practice for guarding against ballistic missile attacks and for defending remote Japanese islands.”^4.The numerous military exercises carried out by the U.S. and its Far Eastern allies were described by one Russian commentator as “the Pentagon [is] flexing its muscles against both North Korea and China.”^4.

Indeed, since the days of the Korean War, the relationship between North Korea and China has been compared to “lip and teeth”, as a formal military alliance has been maintained for more than four decades. However, since the Reform and Opening Up, China has developed a stronger economic and trade relationship with South Korea. To the reformers in China, “Pyongyang has become a Cold War relic, strategic liability, and monumental headache for Beijing.”⁵. However, in her attempt to maintain normal relations and implement good neighbor policy towards North Korea, Beijing still continues to supply vital commodities such as food and energy to North Korea. This presents a challenge for Washington: how to devise appropriate strategy to divide China and North Korea. One of the approaches the United States employs is to launch crippling sanctions against the North Koreans thereby weakening the country, which may result in a regime collapse. Ideally these sanctions are imposed under the auspices of UN with the participation of China. Once again, the United States is practicing the traditional imperial strategy of divide-and -rule.

Thus, a concerted action of crippling sanctions was launched against North Korea. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the premier U.S. foreign policy think tank, the U.S. policies with respect to North Korea are defined as: “Containment and management” in its current states; “a rollback of the nuclear program; and regime change.”^6. In order to implement these multi-objectives, the United States is acting with a sense of urgency to find out the true status of the China-North Korea ties. For the United States, China’s attitude toward North Korea will determine what course of action America will take against the latter, as America has already paid a heavy price in the Korean War exactly sixty years ago due to her miscalculation of the Chinese equation.

Fortunately for America, what is “bitterly critical” of North Korea in the editorial pages of the official press in China as well as comments such as “North Korea is a security liability to the People’s Republic of China”, which was uttered by scholars close to the Chinese leadership, have given encouragement and comfort to U.S. policymakers. As a result, they have carried out an aggressive campaign against the North Koreans without worrying about China’s reaction. In this regard, the joint declaration for a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula after the meeting between Bush and Chinese leadership in Crawford in 2003 set a precedent for China’s acquiescence to American actions with respect to North Korea. Subsequently, China’s alignment with the United States in the UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea has increased tension in the Korean peninsula. As a result, North Korea has been diplomatically isolated and, without the backing of a major power in the region, she is vulnerable to military attacks. For this reason, North Korea in a desperate move has resorted to the development of nuclear weapons as a means to safeguard her security.^6.

North Korea’s strategic interests with the United States were further undermined when “a fairly senior Chinese military officer” fully disclosed China’s obligations in the event of military conflict between U.S. and North Korea. Astonishingly, in a private conversation with a member of U.S. foreign policy establishment in Washington, this officer gave “a list of all the things that China would not do and does not do in terms of its support for North Korea.”^6. At the end of the list, this officer declared: “We don’t exercise together. We don’t do joint logistics. We don’t plan. We don’t cooperate, etcetera.”^6.This is in sharp contrast with the U.S. policy with respect to the Taiwan issue, as America has maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity since the establishment of diplomatic relations with China.

With the Wikileaks’ release of U.S. diplomatic cables in November 2010, it has become increasingly apparent that China’s deteriorated relations with North Korea were further confirmed to Washington policymakers. These cables reveal, in one instance, that China’s vice Foreign Minister, He Yafei, “told the U.S. charge D’affaires in Beijing that North Korea was behaving like a ‘spoiled child’ to get Washington’s attention in April 2009 by carrying out missile tests.”^7. On another occasion, the same Mr. He candidly told James Steinberg, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, China’s feeling about the North Koreans: “We may not like them… [But] they are a neighbor.”^7.

China’s policy on the question of reunification in the Korean peninsula has been a prime concern to Seoul. According to former South Korean vice-foreign minister Chun Yung-woo, Chinese leaders “no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally and would not risk renewed armed conflict on the peninsula.”^8. Chun claimed that two high-level officials in China “believed Korea should be unified under ROK [South Korea] control.” ^8.Chun’s conviction is based on his conversations with the Chinese officials during the six-party-talks.^8. Furthermore, “Chun dismissed the prospect of a possible PRC [People’s Republic of China] military intervention in the event of a DPRK [North Korea] collapse, noting that China’s strategic economic interests lie with the United States, Japan and South Korea—not North Korea.”^8.

Subsequent to these remarks, Mr. Chun has been appointed national security adviser to South Korea’s President, Lee Myung-bak. It is reasonable to conclude that Mr. Chun’s view would have considerable influence on Mr. Lee’s policy with North Korea, which is “very adversarial and confrontational,” and aims “to bring about the collapse of DPRK [North Korea] and its takeover by the ROK [South Korea].^1.

In implementing these adversarial and confrontational policies, Mr. Lee uses every opportunity to create crises. In this regard, “Lee’s motives are probably threefold: to increase pressure on the North to produce a crisis of confidence and a collapse, to raise tension and fear of the North in the South, and to lock the Americans into his strategy.”^1.

For these reasons, the sinking of the South Korean navy vessel Cheonan on March 26, 2010 provides Mr. Lee a golden opportunity to push for international sanctions against the North. In the aftermath of the Cheonan Incident, Lee’s government sponsored an international investigation. The Joint Investigation Group was comprised of representatives from the United State, Britain, Sweden but excluded China, Russia and North Korea who were the key participants in the six-party talks. The investigation produced a report claiming that a North Korean submarine sank the vessel with a torpedo. This contradicted a Russian investigation, which concluded “that an accidental encounter with a sea mine was a more likely cause.”^2.In South Korea, public skepticism increased after the Joint Investigation Group report was released and a poll commissioned by Seoul University revealed “only 32.5 percent of South Koreans expressed confidence in the report’s conclusion.”^9.

Public skepticism over the investigation of the Cheonan Incident, the unsuccessful attempt to get the UN to condemn the North and election setbacks at home have all added impetus for Mr. Lee to take military action against the North. Relying on his advisor’s inside knowledge of China’s position with North Korea and firmly believing that his aggressive actions will be met with impunity, Mr. Lee has resorted to brinkmanship, launching military exercises to accelerate tension and deepening the crisis in the peninsula.

Similarly, in response to Lee’s aggressive move, North Korea has also used brinkmanship. In recent years, the North Korean economy has been severely damaged by sanctions imposed by the U.S. and her Western alliance. Moreover, President Bush quite openly stated the option of a military strike against North Korea in front of the visiting Chinese president. With the loss of China as her traditional ally and the attendant protection of China’s nuclear umbrella, North Korea has decided to develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent to U.S. aggression. Most ominously, a leading North Korean state newspaper has discussed the use of nuclear hardware as an offensive weapon. North Korea has threatened her adversaries—namely the United States, South Korea and Japan with hydrogen bomb raids in case of an invasion of her territories. These nuclear assaults include “ (1) the bombing of operating nuclear stations; (2)detonations of a hydrogen bombs in seas off the U.S., Japan and South Korea; (3) detonations of H-bombs in space far above their heartlands; and (4) thermonuclear attacks on their urban centers.”^10. In fact, North Korea claimed that she “has the ability to inflict merciless retaliatory strikes on the remotest strategic target on the American mainland, nearly half the earth away.”^11.

Unfortunately, in any nuclear confrontation there will be no winners, as nuclear fallout, radioactive contamination of all Asian and American cities would lead to the horrific consequence of radiation diseases, massive casualties among the innocent civilian population and the destruction of the planet and its ecological system.

While vigorously condemning the use of hydrogen bombs in the nuclear age, one should also point out that North Korea is isolated and in a desperate situation. In endeavoring to protect herself against a future attack, North Korea is forced to adopt the use of nuclear weapons as a defensive strategy. Under the leadership of Lee Myung-bak South Korea has entered into an alliance with the United States and Japan in the pursuit of a regime change for North Korea. Lee, armed with what he and his advisor consider to be reliable, privileged information that China will not intervene in the peninsula, is active provoking a crisis to weaken the regime and facilitate the takeover of the North.

The takeover of North Korea by Seoul, backed by her old colonial master Japan and imperial America will indeed be a sad day for China. The possibility of using Korea as a springboard for colonial aggression against China will once again become a reality. The unification of Korea under U.S. military occupation will present a huge security problem for China, especially at a time when the United States has already surrounded China with military bases and alliances with the sole purpose of containing her. China’s policy towards North Korea, which considers the latter as a “strategic liability” and a “Cold War relic”, has greatly damaged China’s strategic interests. This strategic blunder has already indirectly created a nuclear North Korea, which could directly lead to a second Korean War with catastrophic nuclear implications and eventually a Sino-American War.