With a Republican controlled Congress and Donald Trump in the White House, there should be nothing out of reach for the GOP these days. Although they’ve continually failed to overturn the Affordable Care Act, Congressional Republicans finally put it all together and passed major legislation: tax reform.

Going after Social Security on Day 1

Speaking with Business Insider, one anonymous Republican lawmaker had a lot to say about the process of “entitlement reform.”

“Entitlement reform always takes leadership at the presidential level, and it also takes — by the way, real reform takes bipartisanship. … Look, I’m not trying to cast blame,” the Republican lawmaker said. “Nobody’s gotten serious about entitlement reform. So if we’re worried about the debt in 10 years, when we get serious about entitlement reform, then I’ll know we’re serious about the debt. Otherwise it’s a talking-point issue back and forth.”

It doesn’t sound like everybody is in sync on exactly what they’re going to do to Social Security and the rest, but there is real movement in Washington on using entitlements to cover the pending debt created by the new tax bill. But the most interesting thing this lawmaker said about entitlement reform? That Donald Trump wouldn’t be willing to go after Social Security “until the first day of his second term, he told me once.”

Will Trump go back on his promise?

The reason that Trump allegedly wouldn’t want to after Social Security (or Medicare and Medicaid) until the first day of his second term – if he actually were elected a second time – is because he made a very big promise that he wouldn’t. Here is the content of a tweet from Trump’s personal Twitter account on May 7, 2015:

“I was the first & only potential GOP candidate to state there will be no cuts to Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid. Huckabee copied me.”

Trump knows that to tackle these programs would be a major risk to reelection in 2020, which he still views as a possibility despite an approval rating of just 35% after his first 11 months in office. If he truly wants to keep his promise through the next three years, Trump will have a major challenge ahead.

Paul Ryan is out to get entitlements

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan knows that the national debt will skyrocket thanks to the tax bill. He has made no secret of how the GOP plans to tackle balancing the books over the next year.

“We’re going to have to get back next year at entitlement reform, which is how you tackle the debt and the deficit,” Ryan said.

Assuming Congress does put together comprehensive legislation to overhaul the entitlement programs before the 2018 elections, it’ll be a major test of President Trump if they’re able to send that bill to his desk. If Trump holds strong on his “no cuts” promise, would that be enough for Republicans to fall in line with the many Democrats eyeing an impeachment? If Vice President Mike Pence were amenable to signing such a bill, it would be a major possibility.

The GOP is pandering to their rich donors

The whole process of cutting taxes for the wealthy and paying for it by slashing Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid is an extremely transparent attempt by the GOP to transfer even more wealth from the shrinking middle class to their donors. It seems that the party as a whole has seen their opportunity with Trump in the White House and is willing to risk a Democratic takeover of Congress in 2018 to accomplish their agenda.

In doing so, they’re in danger of hurting the very people who put them in office: middle-class Baby Boomers.

When Ryan was the Chairman of the House Budgetary Committee, he pushed for restricting Medicare to only Americans that were already 56 or older, with a system of vouchers for anyone 55 and under. It was unsuccessful, but it’s clear that the Speaker knows how to make this work to his advantage. Targeting the younger generations in entitlement reform often proves popular among older, more conservative voters, so long as there is no change in what has been promised to them.

Social Security and Medicare aren’t welfare

Often, political jargon can confuse the average person that doesn’t stay abreast of social and political topics at all times. Words like “welfare” and “entitlement” run together, making cutting the entitlement programs easy to sell to the less educated portion of the GOP’s conservative base. To many, what is heard is “less free hand outs for the people who could get a job but just don’t want to do their part.”

But Social Security and Medicare are programs that Americans pay for. With few exceptions, American workers put 7.65% of their taxable income toward the entitlement programs. That means if you’re 40 and have averaged $35,000 in taxable income each year since entering the workforce, you’ve likely paid nearly $50,000 to Social Security and Medicare.

For better perspective, here is what Trump said back in 2013 on the topic of cuts: “It’s not unreasonable for people who paid into a system for decades to expect to get their money’s worth – that’s not an ‘entitlement,’ that’s honoring a deal.”

What other options do they have?

Obviously, the easiest answer to the whole problem is not cutting taxes for the wealthy and corporations in the first place. It’s merely digging a gigantic debt hole for future Americans to become trapped under. With no credible projections that the tax bill will grow the economy anywhere close to enough to close debt gap, the GOP has no other option but to raid programs that taxpayers funnel their money into.

Of course, they could always slash the half-trillion-dollar military budget as a way to fix the problem. American defense spending is not only the most of any country in the world, but it also totals more money than the next eight countries combined. But given that Trump has vowed to expand military spending, this likely wouldn’t be popular with the president either.

The fast track to the minority party

Republicans have a hold on the House and the Senate right now, which is why they’ve been so desperate to rush legislation to the point of not even knowing what it actually says. They’re unobstructed from passing anything that the party can agree upon, so long as it doesn’t conflict with the Constitution. That has proved unpopular with American voters, who currently approve of the tax bill at just 33% and the Republican party as a whole at an all-time-low 29%.

Going against the wishes of the majority of Americans isn’t a new for controlling parties, but it’s the fast track to becoming the minority party. After Doug Jones’ historic victory in Alabama, the Senate will have just a 51-49 split between Republicans and Democrats (including two Democrat-caucusing Independents). There is a real chance that both the House and Senate could flip blue next November, making the passing of any Republican agenda next to impossible.

Check out The Cheat Sheet on Facebook!