|   This summer, political junkies have rediscovered the single greatest  force fueling discontent within America's two major parties: economic  nationalism.   Donald Trump — in promising to get tough on China, build a wall  between the U.S. and Mexico, and more generally "make America great  again" — is, of course, the prime example of the moment. But the  politics of economic nationalism have long driven insurgent candidacies,  from Ross Perot to Pat Buchanan to Newt Gingrich.   Economic nationalists score points with angry populists when they  suggest foreign countries are cashing in at America's expense. (Trump:  Mexico is "killing us on trade"; NAFTA is a "total disaster.") But  rarely, if ever, do they stop to concede how truly vulnerable the U.S.  has become to what happens when foreign countries suffer, even if we  circle the wagons. And least of all do the economic nationalists  countenance how bad things can get even when we're merely the victim of  what economists call "knock-on effects" — consequences of consequences.  But in our globalized world, that's definitely how it works. Witness the  chain reaction of plummeting global markets roiled with fear over  China's weakening economy. Or how the world trembled over the eurozone  crisis. And so on.   There's no better current example of our worrisome vulnerability than  the economic relationship between China and Mexico. Latin America —  especially Brazil — has begun  to take a beating from China's deep, and likely protracted, economic  correction. But Americans should be even more focused on what's  unfolding just south of the border.   Just at the moment that Mexicans had reason to hope for a stable  resurgence, China's woes have brought back painful memories of the  country's 1994 currency collapse. "The value of the peso has plummeted  to record lows against the dollar, growth rates have shrunk to dwarfish  size, and the only things that seem to be getting bigger are the poverty  rate and the gap between rich and poor," The Washington Post reported,  noting that the Mexican government's historic auction for oil drilling  rights wound up flopping spectacularly. It was a big opportunity to reel  in more Chinese investment. But China's Nexen Energy Holdings, one of  the few players to make  bids, shied away. It was an evil omen. As one Mexican new media bureau  chief told me, south of the border, fears of a Chinese meltdown are  palpable. That's because for Mexico, trade with China comes in second  only to trade with the U.S., a relationship President Enrique Peña Nieto  has been desperate to boost still further. At the height of protests  last November over the grisly slaughter of 43 students that had been  detained by the government, Peña Nieto   a plane to Beijing, the better to cozy up with President Xi Jinping  amid the latest Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. But now, as  China stumbles, Peña Nieto has been reduced to relying on symbolic  gestures. Just this month, Mexico dutifully   China's invitation to contribute 75 troops to its big World War II  anniversary parade, widely seen by abstaining Western nations as an  excuse to make up for China's economic trouble with a grand display of  military strength. 																																							hoppedaccepted  Mexico is even obstructing  the Obama administration's full-court press for the Trans-Pacific  Partnership — which not only jeopardizes Mexico's NAFTA advantages, but  does so to the benefit of China's longtime rival Japan, in an  arrangement transparently designed to create a hemisphere-sized economic  counterweight to Beijing. Currying favor with the U.S. and China alike  is a tough balancing act. But for Mexico, it's essential.  North-of-the-border trade isn't enough. Without a healthy China, Mexico  may tip toward the abyss.   That would be really bad for America. If you think immigration, wage  stagnation, and drug crime are problems in the U.S. now, consider the  consequences if China's tanking economy takes down Mexico's, too.   America's economic nationalists need to do more than show how they'd  "get tough” with China or Mexico on an individual basis. They need to  articulate their response to the much more serious challenge to come if  and when those economic dominos begin to topple onto us.   Perhaps it's asking a bit much that economic nationalists, long  relegated to the political shadows, spontaneously develop a much more  robust and rigorous vision than they've ever needed before. But the fact  is, they have little choice — and neither do we. Overlaying the world's  economic entanglements is a global financial system that has many  vulnerabilities. As our elites double down on that creaky, corrupt  regime, Americans are hardly the only ones thirsting for an alternative.  It's imperative that someone, somewhere lay out a wise course  correction — one that shields citizens from the worst of international  finance without indulging a fantasy even more invested in economic  vengeance than in economic independence.   Given the profound dysfunction of economies in Europe, Russia, China,  and much of the rest of the world, it's more a matter of prudence than  jingoism to suggest that this special someone will have to be an  American. Ball's in your court, presidential candidates. |